Landmark #1: Population
No one knows how many people the earth can accommodate. Some people doubt that the earth, over the long run, can even sustain a population of 4 billion, which we exceeded back in 1974. Many people would like to see population growth drastically slowed, with the hope of leveling off the world population at 8 or 10 billion.
| Some people believe the
world is in danger of entering a positive feedback loop
from which it will be impossible to escape. The CO2
already in the atmosphere in 1996 slowly but surely
begins to cause global warming. As the oceans get warmer
they stop absorbing CO2 at their present rate. More CO2,
more global warming. More global warming, more CO2... At the same time, population is rising out of control, forests are being cut at an increasing rate, and fertile land is being turned to desert. By 2030 the world is trapped in an unavoidable downward spiral. Within the next couple of centuries the ecosystem is destroyed (changed beyond recognition) and the human population plummets. |
 |
| Some people believe our
environmental problems have been grossly overstated. They
say that as the human population nears the carrying
capacity of the planet, people will come to realize this
and naturally reduce the number of children they have. Other people believe that within the next century we will colonize space, and billions of people will be able to leave the planet to find their fortunes in the stars. Still other people believe that new technologies will make it possible to greatly increase the carrying capacity of the planet, while simultaneously increasing everyone's personal wealth. This new-found wealth will in turn make people less inclined to have many children, and population will level off. |
 |
| Some people believe that
the Earth can support a population of 8 or 10 billion, at
least for a little while. These people think that this
could be done with current technology, relying on global
cutbacks in beef production, a reallocation of farmland
to wheat and rice and soybeans, decreased energy use and
increased energy efficiency. In time, with an unavoidably raised awareness of the problem, the population can be slowly and painlessly brought back to a more tractable level. New technologies or new political systems will make it possible to sustain a population of many billion people for centuries to come. |
 |
