The basic decision making guidelines from the previous page can be very helpful in making personal decisions. For larger and more complex decisions -- ones that are global in scope -- it is useful to also draw upon formal techniques to analyze the many dependencies and interrelationships. In order to make good decisions we need good estimates of probable outcomes of different actions. In simple cause-and-effect situations it's fairly easy to make good estimates of probable outcomes, but as the systems about which we're making decisions grow increasing complex it becomes harder and harder to predict the results of our actions. Systems Analysis and Mathematical Modeling are tools that can help account for complex dependencies and interrelationships, and can help provide better predictions about the results of our actions. Systems Analysis and Mathematical Modeling are an important part of good decision making.
Many people have carefully studied the interrelationships between different world problems and their solutions. I think some of the most interesting work is the application of systems analysis to world problems outlined in the book Beyond the Limits, by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers. (See the appendix entry on Beyond the Limits for a complete citation.)
"The most important part of our way of looking, the part that is perhaps least widely shared, is our systems viewpoint... Systems training has taught us to see the world as a set of unfolding dynamic behavior patterns, such as growth, decline, oscillation, overshoot. It has taught us to focus on interconnections. We see the economy and the environment as one system. We see stocks and flows and feedbacks and thresholds in that system, all of which influence the way the system behaves."
-- Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Beyond the Limits
In Beyond the Limits, the authors discuss World3, a mathematical model used to investigate the behavior of the world as a system, catalog possible scenarios for the future, and identify actions we can take today to guide us toward happier, less tragic futures. The World3 model is publicly available and runs on home computers. It does an outstanding job of accounting for the most important interrelationships between problems, and accounting for time lags and both short and long term effects of actions.
Balance of the Planet is another interesting computer program that uses a mathematical model to reflect a systems viewpoint. Balance of the Planet is sold as a game, but I use it as an educational aid, a reference book, and an inspiration. It does an excellent job of addressing values issues by allowing players to set their own objectives and then accounting for subjective issues and personal values and priorities. In Balance of the Planet players assign weights to the different tragedies experienced by the simulated population of the world. By taxing some actions while subsidizing others, players strive to optimally manage their limited resources to best achieve their own objectives. (See the appendix for a complete citation.)
I think the techniques of decision theory and systems analysis are important and underused. These techniques can be extremely useful for making important decisions that involve great uncertainty, long time horizons, significant value issues, and complex interrelationships.
The Bottom Line
Good work is being done using systems analysis and mathematical
modeling to investigate solutions to world problems. You and I,
as individuals, can review this work.
